The global chocolate market is valued at USD 135 billion for the total market and is projected to grow to USD 174 billion by 2031, with a 3.9% CAGR.
Our figures are based on our analysis of five different market research reports. However, our confidence in these figures is marginal due to the diverging nature of the estimates. A detailed description of our analysis methods is below.
Market Size and Growth Metrics
Current Size and Growth Projections
As of 2024, the global chocolate market is valued at USD 135 billion for the total market. The total market is projected to reach USD 174 billion by 2031, reflecting a CAGR of 3.9% from 2024 to 2031.
This growth is driven by evolving consumer preferences and increasing demand for premium, organic, and ethically sourced products.
Major Market Segmentation
By Product Type
- Dark Chocolate: Continues to dominate the market with a share of 70.3% in 2024, favored for its health benefits, including potential cardiovascular advantages and lower sugar content.
- Milk Chocolate: Holds a significant market share, accounting for approximately 22.5% in 2024, due to its sweet flavor and creamy texture, appealing to a broad consumer base.
- White Chocolate: Represents around 7.2% of the market in 2024. While less popular than dark and milk varieties, white chocolate caters to niche markets and is frequently used in confectionery products.
By Region
- North America: Characterized by high chocolate consumption, this region is projected to account for approximately 27.5% of the global chocolate market in 2024. The United States and Canada lead the market, driven by a strong gifting culture and seasonal celebrations.
- Europe: Europe remains the largest market, holding a share of about 43.5% in 2024. The region is known for its premium chocolates, with countries like Germany, France, and the UK being major consumers. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.46% through 2030.
- Asia-Pacific: This region is anticipated to grow at the highest CAGR of 6.9%, reflecting a surge in chocolate consumption due to rising disposable incomes and westernized lifestyles. The market share is expected to increase significantly as consumer preferences evolve.
- Latin America: Experiencing growth driven by increasing chocolate production and consumption, particularly in Brazil and Argentina, this region is gaining traction in the global chocolate market.
- Middle East & Africa: Although smaller in size, the chocolate sector in this region is growing, with a projected CAGR of 5.81% from 2024 to 2030. The demand for premium products and gifting occasions is on the rise, particularly in countries with large expatriate populations.
By Price Point
- Everyday Chocolates: Accounting for approximately 60% of the market in 2024, everyday chocolates hold the largest share due to their affordability and widespread availability, catering to a broad consumer base.
- Premium Chocolates: Representing around 30% of the market in 2024, premium chocolates appeal to consumers seeking high-quality, artisanal products with unique flavors and ingredients. This segment is growing as consumers are willing to pay more for an enhanced chocolate experience.
- Seasonal Chocolates: Capturing about 10% of the market in 2024, seasonal chocolates are popular during specific times of the year, such as holidays and celebrations. These products often feature special packaging and limited-edition flavors to create a sense of exclusivity and excitement among consumers.
Industry Trends and Dynamics
Health Consciousness
The global dark chocolate market is driven by increasing awareness of its health benefits, including lower sugar content and higher cocoa levels. This segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.2% from 2024 to 2034, highlighting its popularity among health-conscious consumers.
Sustainability
There is a growing emphasis on sustainable sourcing and ethical production practices, with consumers increasingly favoring brands that prioritize fair trade and environmentally friendly practices. Approximately 55.4% of the dark chocolate market is expected to be organic by 2034, reflecting this shift towards sustainability.
Premiumization
The demand for premium and artisanal chocolates is on the rise, with this segment projected to account for about 30% of the chocolate market in 2024. Consumers are willing to pay more for high-quality, unique products that offer rich flavor experiences, driving innovation in product offerings and packaging.
Industry Drivers and Challenges
Rising Disposable Income
As disposable incomes rise, particularly in emerging markets, consumers are increasingly inclined to purchase premium and specialty chocolate products. The global premium chocolate market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.8% from 2023 to 2032, reflecting this trend.
Increasing Demand for Specialty Products
The demand for specialty chocolates is surging, with the market expected to grow significantly due to consumer preferences for unique flavors and high-quality ingredients. This segment is anticipated to account for 25% of the total chocolate market by 2024.
Supply Chain Issues
Challenges in the cocoa supply chain, including climate change impacts and ethical sourcing concerns, pose risks to the chocolate industry. Cocoa prices have surged by over 200% since early 2023, reaching approximately USD 7,000 to USD 9,000 per metric ton in 2024, driven by poor harvests and supply constraints.
Environmental and Social Issues
The cocoa industry faces significant environmental and social challenges, including deforestation and child labor. Reports indicate that only 22% of indirect cocoa supply chains are traceable to farms, highlighting the need for improved transparency and sustainable practices. The upcoming EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to enhance traceability but may also complicate sourcing efforts for many traders.
Consumer Insights
Per Capita Consumption
Per capita chocolate consumption varies significantly by region, with Switzerland leading at approximately 22.36 pounds per person annually in 2024.
In the United States, average consumption is around 11.64 pounds per person per year, reflecting strong consumer demand and cultural preferences for chocolate as a staple treat.
Overall, the global average per capita chocolate consumption is projected to reach 8.5 pounds in 2024, indicating a steady increase as emerging markets adopt chocolate consumption habits.
Shifts in Consumer Preferences
There is a notable shift towards healthier options, with the organic chocolate market expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.7% from 2024 to 2030, driven by increasing consumer awareness of health benefits.
The demand for sugar-free chocolates is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 6.8%, reflecting a trend towards lower sugar options among health-conscious consumers.
Approximately 55.4% of dark chocolate sales are projected to be organic by 2034, indicating a significant consumer preference for sustainably sourced and health-oriented products.
Conclusion
In 2024, the global chocolate market is valued at USD 135 billion for the total market and about USD 124 billion for At Home consumption. The total market is projected to reach USD 174 billion by 2031, reflecting a CAGR of 3.9% from 2024 to 2031. Key takeaways include:
- Dark Chocolate Leads: In 2024, dark chocolate dominates with 70.3% of the market, thanks to its health benefits and lower sugar content.
- Regional Differences: Europe holds 43.5% of the market, while Asia-Pacific is growing the fastest, with a 6.9% CAGR.
- Premium & Sustainable Demand: Premium chocolates make up 30% of the market, and 55.4% of dark chocolate is expected to be organic by 2034.
- Supply Chain Issues: Cocoa prices have risen by 200% since 2023, driven by supply shortages and environmental concerns.
The global chocolate market presents significant growth opportunities, especially in premium and sustainable segments, it must also navigate the complexities of a challenging supply chain and evolving consumer demands.
References and Data Sources
How did we analyze our Sources?
To gain a complete understanding of the global chocolate market, we’ve analyzed data from five different market research reports. Using our own weighted criteria, we selected the top three reports with the highest scores and based our estimate on their findings.
| CHOCOLATE Analysis | Statista | Mordor Intelligence | Grand View Research | IMARC Group | Straits Research | SUMMARY |
| Published Date | Jun 2024 | – | 2023 | 2023 | 2022 | |
| Market Captured | At-home | – | Combined | Combined | Combined | |
| Current 2024 market size | $134B | $109B | $124B | $167B* | $141B* | Combined – $135B |
| Future market size | – | $145B by 2030 | $157B by 2030 | $213B by 2032 | $182B by 2031 | Combined – $174B by 2031 |
| CAGR | – | 4.9% (2024-2030) | 4.1% (2024-2030) | 2.9% (2024-2032) | 3.5% (2019-2031) | 3.9% (2024-2031) |
Please note: Data marked with * is estimated based on original sources.
How did we grade our Sources?
| Score | CHOCOLATE Analysis | Statista | Mordor Intelligence | Grand View Research | IMARC Group | Straits Research | SUMMARY |
| 3 | – Criteria 1: Clear Source | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | – Criteria 2: Recency | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | – Criteria 3: Authority | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | – Criteria 4: Objective & Clear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| SOURCE GRADE | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.67 |
- 4 = Highly useful, clear, and resistant to manipulation
- 0 = Provides no indication of reliability
| 3 | – Criteria 1: Clear Source Citation | +1 IF: Clearly states where they got the data from. |
| 2 | – Criteria 2: Recency | +1 IF: published or updated the last 3mo. |
| 4 | – Criteria 3: Authority | +1 IF: Govt Agency, Academic Institution, Academic Paper
+1 IF anything else.
|
| 1 | – Criteria 4: Objective & Clear |
+1 IF: The information presented without emotional wording or bias, states the facts cleanly and clearly.
+0.5 IF one of the above.
|
How did we determine our Market Size?
Understanding the market’s direction can be challenging based on these estimates.
We removed Statista’s data for At Home as it was inconsistent.
For the combined At Home and Out-of-Home market, we averaged data from the other four sources, estimating USD 135 billion. These figures align and support the growth trend.
We encourage you to critically assess the data and consider different perspectives to develop your own insights into the chocolate market’s future.
Nathan has always been captivated by numbers and patterns. With a Master’s degree in Statistics, he’s honed his skills to decipher complex data sets and discern market trends.
Over the past decade, Nathan has worked with various firms compiling and analyzing industry spending figures to forecast market movements.